Retailers are taking the wrong approach when it comes to targeting at-home occasions, leaving $100 million in annual sales on the table, a Circana survey indicates.
“Retailers have traditionally struggled to target at-home occasions because standard point-of-sale (POS) and purchase panel data only show what consumers buy — not how, when, or why those items are actually used,” David Portalatin, Circana’s senior vice president and food industry adviser, told The Food Institute. ”Without visibility into consumption, it’s difficult to identify the true occasions driving demand.”
Circana surveyed 25,000 consumers across demographics and found CPG manufacturers need to understand consumer choices to position their products and promote them to take advantage of shifting consumer trends.
The National Eating Survey found consumers spend $3.78 per person on at-home dinners but increase the total by 36% when adult guests are present.
Circana estimates four of the top 10 retailers are under-indexing in capturing those dinner dollars.
“When evaluating occasions, it’s important to look beyond frequency alone. By incorporating both how often occasions occur and how much consumers spend per person on retail items – what we call occasion dollars – we get a more meaningful view of where value is concentrated,” Portalatin said.
Retailers can rank the top occasions as dinner, lunch, breakfast, after dinner, and between lunch and dinner – in that order – and should target vegetables, meat entrees, rice and sandwiches for dinner; sandwiches, chicken, fruit, salty snacks and vegetables for lunch, and eggs, cereal, breads, fruit, pancakes and waffles for breakfast, excluding hot dogs and hamburgers from all meals.
“This ranking highlights that higher-spend occasions, like dinner, carry disproportionate importance even if some lower-spend occasions happen more frequently,” Portalatin said.
Fooddrinklife.com reported recently that Americans increasingly are opting for casual nights at home, built around advance preparations to nights out, the result of rising restaurant prices and changing work schedules.
Government data show the cost of food away from home has risen 3.6% in the last year while grocery prices were up 1.9%, making home cooking more attractive. The USDA estimates food at home prices will increase 2.4% this year while food away from home could go up as much as 4.5%.
Circana is rolling out its Purchase to Consumption solution which quantifies consumer purchase and consumption behaviors – information that has existed in separate data sets in the past.
The survey identified more than 1.8 million occasion days annually for food and beverage consumption, representing $100 million in annual sales. The new platform allows for more targeted marketing and help to identify where these products are underdeveloped, Circana said.
“We expect retailers to shift from a product-centric to an occasion-centric strategy, using these insights to better align with how consumers actually eat at home,” Portalatin said. “Ultimately, retailers that activate against real consumption behavior – not just purchase data – will be better positioned to win by meeting consumers with the right solutions at the right moments.”
So, what does the Circana say retailers should do?
Reorganize around occasions: Merchandise and promote products based on meal solutions (e.g., “easy weeknight dinner” or “quick lunch”) rather than isolated categories
Optimize assortment: Prioritize products that over-index for high-value occasions like dinner where spending and basket size are greatest
Enhance cross-merchandising: Bring together complementary items – such as proteins, sides, and beverages – to simplify meal planning and drive incremental sales
Personalize promotions: Use occasion-based insights to target consumers with more relevant offers tied to specific eating moments
Collaborate more closely with CPG partners: Align innovation, packaging, and promotions around key growth occasions
The Food Institute Podcast
At SIAL Canada 2026 in Montreal, Food Institute VP of Content and Insights Chris Campbell sat down with Mathieu Brisson, Global Sales Lead at Prestige Maple, to discuss how the company is transforming maple products for a rapidly evolving global food and beverage market.
