Though inflation eased slightly last month, it’s still getting more expensive to eat. The latest U.S. Consumer Price Index showed food costs are up 3% while the overall inflation rate dropped to 2.8%.
In May, inflation stood 4.2% higher than prices in May 2025.
“In the last couple of years, food prices have risen incrementally and consistently,” Conor Field, general manager of Mber, a London restaurant and bar, told The Food Institute. “The rhetoric we hear from suppliers is that they know restaurants are struggling, so they are doing their best to keep costs down and avoid unnecessary increases. However, in reality, we hear that the tuna is going up 15% due to the market, and they’re adding a 6% logistical cost increase to all deliveries due to the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, and that it’s unavoidable.”
The CPI showed food prices up 0.2 point in June, but grocery prices are up 2.7% from last year and restaurant prices up 3.4%.
“The meats, poultry, fish, and eggs index increased 0.6% over the month as the eggs index rose 4.3%. The index for other food at home increased 0.5% in June, and the index for dairy and related products rose 1.2%. The cereals and bakery products index increased 0.3% over the month,” the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported.
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At restaurants, Toast reported the following price increases:
- Cold brew coffee: up 3.7% compared to last year to $5.62 a cup
- The median price for restaurant coffee was up 7.1% to $3.75
- The median restaurant price for beer: up 2.2% to $6.60
- The median restaurant price for burgers: up 2.2% to $14.71
- The median restaurant price for burritos: up 1.6% to $13.59
- The median restaurant price for wings: up 1.2% to $13.91
“Food costs have gone up, but so has everything else that goes into running the business. The temptation is to keep chasing customers with promotions or discounts, but I don’t think that’s what people are looking for anymore,” Bob Vergidis, founder and chief vision officer at pointofsale.cloud, told FI. “When money feels tight, consumers become more careful about where they spend it.”
With beef among the priciest items both at the store and at restaurants, consumers are rethinking consumption habits.
Todd Prochaska, chief operating officer of New York Butcher Shoppe, said he sees consumers choosing less expensive options. Retail beef prices are up as much as 27% compared with two years ago, largely on supply issues with the size of cattle herds at a 75-year low.
“The volume of beef produced in the U.S. has been on the decline for the last few years as demand remains high,” Prochaska said. “There are no definitive signs that these supply or demand trends will reverse in the short term.
“While I don’t expect sharp increases or significant volatility, prices are not likely to drop much in the near future.”
The USDA Food Price Outlook predicts beef and veal prices to rise 7.5% this year, with pork prices rising 1.9%. Both poultry and egg prices are expected to continue to decline from their peaks as the impact of the bird flu outbreak fades.
In the produce aisle, fruit is expected to increase 2% this year while vegetable prices are expected to rise 7.7%. USDA said sugar and sweets are expected to get 6.9% more expensive while nonalcoholic beverage prices are predicted to rise 5.7%.
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