NEW YORK CITY – At BMO’s 2026 Global Farm to Market conference (BMO F2M), industry stakeholders across the value chain addressed the most pressing topics affecting operations, including finding success in today’s difficult market, addressing changing consumer preferences, and future-proofing technologies.
The 21st annual edition of this premier industry event took place May 13-14 in New York City, bringing together myriad key stakeholders across the food and agriculture value chain, including retailers, brands, producers, and chemical firms.
Francois Trahan, chief investment strategist at BMO Capital Markets, level set expectations around the current state of the economy. He warned that the U.S. economy is entering a structurally different environment driven largely by demographics and labor shortages.
“We’ve gone from 15-ish percent to almost 20% retired in 15 years,” Trahan said, arguing that the retirement of baby boomers has materially reduced labor supply and made the economy more inflation-sensitive than in previous cycles.
He added that inflation is likely to “come back more quickly than we’ve been accustomed to in the past,” particularly as economic growth accelerates.
Trahan also highlighted rising energy prices as a growing risk across agriculture and food markets, noting that oil shocks could eventually feed through transportation, fertilizer, and production costs.
“There’s virtually nothing we consume that is not impacted by energy prices,” he said, warning that the full effects on fertilizer pricing and agricultural inputs may still take time to emerge.
While he expressed skepticism that artificial intelligence will meaningfully offset labor shortages in the near term, Trahan argued that inflationary pressures tied to demographics, immigration policy, and energy costs are likely to remain a major theme heading into the back half of 2026 and beyond.
This tension uncovers an unavoidable market environment, where businesses are innovating to secure growth. Following are key development areas.
Fertilizer Markets Tighten as Global Demand, Geopolitical Risks Push Prices Higher
Fertilizer producers and agricultural input companies described a market being reshaped by tight global supply, geopolitical instability, and resilient demand growth.
Executives across the potash sector pointed to strong consumption in Brazil, China, and Southeast Asia, alongside historically low inventories. Karina Gistelinck, asset president potash at BHP, said global potash demand is expected to grow “about 70% between now and 2050,” driven by population growth and rising food demand. Meanwhile, K+S CEO Dr. Christian Meyer said global demand remains “strong,” particularly in China and Brazil, where inventories remain well below target levels.
Rising geopolitical tensions, especially in the Middle East, emerged as a major factor influencing fertilizer pricing. Gistelinck noted the conflict has had a “massive impact” on nitrogen and phosphate markets because of the region’s importance in urea and phosphoric acid production, warning that affordability is becoming a growing issue for farmers.
Christian Meyer added that sulfur prices have surged because nearly “45% is coming from the Middle East,” creating additional pressure on sulfate-based fertilizers like SOP. Mosaic executives similarly acknowledged that sulfur availability and pricing were materially affecting phosphate production decisions and product mix.
Despite concerns about future supply additions, executives broadly argued that the market can absorb new production. Mosaic said the current environment remains “very compelling” for potash, with pricing expected to establish a new global floor above recent contract levels. K+S also downplayed fears around BHP’s Jansen project, arguing that incremental capacity will largely match long-term demand growth.
“Every two and a half years, we need additional volumes of four million tons,” Meyer said, adding that the industry still faces structurally low application rates globally.
Crop protection company FMC described a more stable pricing environment after years of aggressive generic competition.
CEO Pierre Brondeau said pricing pressure in Brazil appears to be “leveling off,” while order activity for the second half of the year has strengthened significantly. Still, companies remain cautious about rising energy, freight, and raw material costs, with several executives warning that prolonged geopolitical disruptions could continue driving fertilizer and input prices higher through the remainder of 2026.
Protein on the Plate, Executives’ Minds, at BMO F2M
Protein emerged as one of the strongest long-term themes discussed during the conference, with speakers pointing to aging demographics, GLP-1 adoption, wellness trends, and shifting consumer eating habits as major demand drivers.
Tom Ausburn, managing director, food, consumer & agribusiness at BMO Commercial Bank, added that the trend has been “generally positive” for protein companies, particularly those focused on value-added and convenience-oriented products.
Daniel Hopkin, partner at Kainos Capital, said protein remains “one of the most enduring trends in the food space,” though he cautioned that not every product category naturally benefits from protein fortification.
He noted that consumers are increasingly shifting away from “sugars and refined carbs to protein,” creating broad opportunities across retail, foodservice, and value-added food manufacturing. However, Jake Karls, co-founder of Mid-Day Squares, warned that many brands are sacrificing flavor for functionality, arguing that “the winners will be the ones that can balance taste and protein together.”
Laura Markley, CFO of Farmer Focus, added that the source and quality of protein matter increasingly to consumers, particularly as shoppers focus more on “whole foods” and clean-label products rather than heavily processed items with added protein claims.
Tyson CEO Donnie King noted that the protein-added innovation industry is filled with promise; however, it requires stellar execution to benefit. In particular, the time to market has never been more important.
“No one is willing to entertain a [long-term] product innovation cycle,” which is often over a year for the industry, he noted.
To get around this, Tyson works on concurrent innovation activity, rather than sequential rollouts, basing new offerings based on the robust repository of first-party data for which the brand has access.
JBS executives brought an international perspective to the conversation, describing sustained global consumption growth and rising interest in higher-value protein products.
Wesley Mendonca Batista Filho, CEO of JBS USA, said the U.S. protein market is increasingly focused on “high marble, high premium, high quality products,” reflecting consumers’ willingness to pay for better quality and value-added offerings. Executives also highlighted continued momentum in branded and prepared protein products, particularly in Brazil, where premium processed foods are gaining share despite broader economic pressure.
Simultaneously, JBS noted that global supply constraints, rising fertilizer costs, and tighter cattle cycles are likely to remain important factors shaping protein markets over the next several years.
GLP-1 medications were also highlighted as accelerating demand for protein-rich foods and smaller, more nutrient-dense eating occasions. Markley said consumers are increasingly seeking “really good protein-to-calorie ratios” across breakfast, snacks, and prepared meals, creating opportunities for convenient, ready-to-eat formats.
Karls added that while GLP-1 drugs are “here to stay,” brands are still learning how to adapt portion sizes, product formats, and innovation strategies to evolving consumer behavior.
For farmers and producers, industry experts noted that chicken and poultry stakeholders are uniquely positioned to grow alongside this new market dynamic, as the offer represents a low-cost, lean option for consumers, particularly in the face of raising beef costs.
Cal-Maine Foods chief strategy officer Keira Lombardo added that, beyond meats, eggs are poised to benefit. She highlighted their affordability, emphasizing the attractive cost per gram of protein ratio, as well as their versatility across day parts and cuisine types.
“There has never been a better time to be in the protein business,” she said.
Hopkin argued that “protein is not one industry,” pointing to the wide range of business models spanning animal protein, dairy, beverages, snacks, and functional nutrition products. Across categories, speakers agreed that future growth will likely center on products that successfully combine taste, nutrition, convenience, and affordability while maintaining transparency and consumer trust.
Darling Ingredients identifies various protein innovation levers for its business. One area of the brand’s business harvests collagen and gelatin from animal byproducts. Both processes are sustainable, noted CFO Robert Day, because of the immense domestic supply.
A history of R&D and investments has also supported differentiated ingredients in these categories that brand partners can leverage in their products.
The one caveat to protein growth, however, is that consumers are not eating as much on average, noted Tom Ausborn, managing director of food, consumer, and agribusiness for BMO. Nevertheless, he noted that lean protein offerings and value-added players will be the likely winners in today’s market.
Mendy Meriwether, principal and VP of foodservice at NexChapter, noted that retailers are increasingly focused on protein and fiber offerings but cautioned operators against moving so aggressively toward health-focused products that they alienate their traditional customer base.
Future-Ready Crops Drive Agricultural Innovation
Agricultural technology companies are investing heavily in next-generation crop systems aimed at improving yields, resilience, and sustainability.
Corteva CEO Chuck Magro said “gene-editing technology… could be more impactful, more powerful than biotechnology was 25 years ago,” pointing to future applications in disease resistance, insect protection, and crop performance. Magro highlighted Corteva’s upcoming gene-edited corn hybrid featuring a “disease super locus” designed to strengthen plant resistance, while also noting the company’s planned hybrid wheat launch in 2027 as “another billion dollars of growth opportunity.”
Bayer executives also emphasized advanced genetics and precision agriculture as critical tools for the future of farming.
Rodrigo Santos, president of crop science at Bayer AG, said the company is preparing “seven biotech traits launching in the U.S.,” alongside several additional launches in Brazil over the coming years. Santos pointed to Bayer’s short-stature corn platform as a major systems-based innovation that helps farmers improve planting density, fertilizer efficiency, and crop protection practices.
“What farmers are really great at is bringing that technology to their own field and maximizing that,” Santos said.
Executives also tied future crop innovation to growing demand for renewable fuels and sustainability-focused agriculture. Bayer’s Brian Naber noted that “better than 80 million acres globally” are already dedicated to biomass-based diesel feedstocks, highlighting long-term opportunities tied to decarbonization and biofuels.
Ethanol has become a bright spot for the agriculture industry, supporting corn farmers and ethanol producers down the value chain.
At a time when inputs are increasing, demand and viability of ethanol are increasing, creating a potentially future-proof market for corn. Recent wars in the Middle East have highlighted once again gasoline’s volatility and its impact on businesses and consumers.
The Andersons CEO Bill Krueger said, “Ethanol is having a moment.” The commodity is trading at a discount to gasoline and has supported international trade markets.
In this vein, E15, a bill recently passed in the House of Representatives, would allow for the year-round sale of blended gasoline (85% gasoline, 15% ethanol). Green Plains CFO Ann Reis noted that this measure is an option, rather than a mandate. If passed into law, she anticipates that it would be a win-win for ethanol producers and end consumers.
“Ethanol has always been the lower-cost fuel,” she said, adding that it is also more eco-friendly.
The Food Institute Podcast
At SIAL Canada 2026 in Montreal, Food Institute VP of Content and Insights Chris Campbell sat down with Mathieu Brisson, Global Sales Lead at Prestige Maple, to discuss how the company is transforming maple products for a rapidly evolving global food and beverage market.
