Fresh into the new year and 2025 is already shaping up to be a difficult year for the alcohol sector, which has long since faced decreased consumption, slimming margins, and now a U.S. Surgeon General advisory on the link between drinking and cancer risk.
Recent Circana data found that dollar sales for domestic beer dipped 2.8% and wine fell 1.7 % for the year ended Dec. 1, reported CSP News Daily. On the other hand, non-alcoholic beer jumped 29.3% and non-alcoholic wine edged up 45.7% over the same period, signaling accelerated support for teetotaling lifestyles.
This phenomenon even took over the beer celebration Oktoberfest 2024— nearly 90% of large beer tents at last year’s festivities served some form of zero-proof drink.
“The people are unfortunately – and I have to say that as a brewer – drinking less beer,” said Tobias Zollo, head brewmaster at Weihenstephan, in a story on the topic.
The Call for Updated Government Warning Alcohol Labels
On Friday, U.S. Surgeon General Dr. Vivek Murthy published a comprehensive look at how alcohol consumption can increase one’s risk of developing certain cancers, citing peer-reviewed research on the topic.
“Alcohol is a well-established, preventable cause of cancer responsible for about 100,000 cases of cancer and 20,000 cancer deaths annually in the United States – greater than the 13,500 alcohol-associated traffic crash fatalities per year in the U.S. – yet the majority of Americans are unaware of this risk,” said Dr. Murthy in a statement.
The Surgeon General detailed a plan to update the health warning label on alcoholic beverages for the first time since 1988 to include language identifying their cancer risk.
Currently, the warning only covers risks related to alcohol consumption for pregnant women, and driving or operating heavy machinery. Any government warning label legislation must be passed through Congress; therefore, the impact of the advisory is still unclear.
Michael Ashley Schulman, chief investment officer at Running Point Capital Advisors, however, told Reuters that he doesn’t expect a label to impact drastically alcohol sales.
“Most Americans tend to believe that nearly everything is okay in moderation, thus much as warning labels alone on cigarette packs did little to curb public smoking, I expect warning labels on alcohol to have little effect,” he said.
Nevertheless, alcohol stocks still dropped hours after the news first broke: Jack Daniel’s parent Brown-Forman hit its lowest price since April 2017 and Budweiser maker Anheuser-Busch InBev was down 2.7%, according to the report.
Dry January: A Symptom of a Health-Conscious Population
New Year’s Resolutions and even more support for the “sober-curious” start to the year that is Dry January are kicking off a year of mocktails and zero-proof brews.
Recent data from Ipsos Consumer Tracker uncovered that, of the 1,085 U.S. adults interviewed about their 2025 New Year’s resolutions, 20% are looking to participate in Dry January (up two percentage points from the previous year), and 39% endeavor to cut their alcohol consumption (up four percentage points from PY).
Overall, resolutions involved a look at one’s health and well-being.
A separate report from Numerator found that, of the 48% of consumers planning to make resolutions, 74% have some sort of fitness, weight loss, or healthy consumption-related goal. Surprisingly, 10% plan to use GLP-1 prescription weight loss drugs, a fact that augurs a rough year ahead for the alcohol sector. These drug users often note cutting back on their weekly drinking after starting the medication, noted NPR. A recent study corroborates these findings:
“Approximately 50% of patients who consumed alcohol at baseline reported decreased alcohol use after initiating their anti-obesity medication,” study author Lisa Matero, a health psychologist and researcher at Henry Ford Health, told the news source.
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