The food and beverage industry is looking at slowing growth in 2026 due to economic pressures, shifting consumer preferences and supply chain issues, but there’s still room for brands to expand, experts told The Food Institute.
Circana’s revised 2026 U.S food and beverage retail outlook calls for sales growth between 2% and 4%, compared to 4% in Europe.
Marcel Koks, the senior director of industry and solution strategy for the food and beverage sector at Infor, told FI the F&B sector is subject to a highly complex supply network where a single product often depends on multiple supply chains and global suppliers.
“Food and beverage companies operate within highly complex and interdependent supply networks,” Koks said. “Being able to anticipate disruptions and pivot sourcing or production plans quickly is essential to maintaining reliability and customer trust.”
2026 Growth Formula: Smarter Pricing, Channel Agility
Sally Lyons Wyatt, global executive VP and chief adviser at Circana, said the report reflects a tightening and more challenging market, with premiumization slowing.
Wyatt said while pricing pressures and consumer skittishness are pressuring the growth trajectory, “brands and retailers that prioritize affordability, channel flexibility, and personalized experiences will be best positioned to succeed in 2026’s competitive landscape.”
Heather Vossier, assistant VP for innovation and brand analytics for Brand Fuel at Hormel, told FI tighter budgets are forcing consumers to make every purchase count, reshaping how they define value.
“Trusted names help consumers feel anchored and inspired, blending affordability with emotional connection and practical solutions in a time of uncertainty,” Vossier said.
Ben Tannenbaum, who writes Proof Points, a weekly industry newsletter, told FI consumer behavior was becoming more intentional long before blockbuster weight-loss drugs like Ozempic and Wegovy entered the picture.
“These drugs amplify that trend. They accelerate the move toward lighter, more functional options, but they’re not the root cause. The overall trajectory was already in motion,” Tannenbaum said.
He feels the most growth potential lies among brands that understand how fragmented consumption has become.
“People now make decisions based on moods and moments, not rigid categories. A single consumer might want energy in the morning, focus in the afternoon, calm in the evening, and a social unwind on the weekend — and they’re comfortable mixing across categories and form factors to get there,” Tannenbaum said. “The brands that win will build portfolios with that range in mind.”
The Circana report points to more nuanced growth because of the economy at-large, but brands better positioned for success are those that effectively balance pricing, innovation and consumer empathy, the report said.
Circana advised brands to:
- Establish price points for lower-income shoppers and fine tune price-value to higher-income shoppers
- Align channel coverage and promotions to account for shifting consumer preferences
- Use AI to differentiate offerings for wellness, convenience and taste
THC Beverage Boom at Risk
David Spang, co-founder of Nine Dot Cannabis Beverages and Coastal Green Wellness, said he sees the most growth potential in beverages within the THC/CBD market – as long as bans currently under consideration fail.
“Hemp-derived THC beverages are on the verge of taking cannabis mainstream in a completely new channel,” Spang said, adding he sees Target’s pilot program as the biggest boost toward normalization. However, regulation in the pending Farm Bill and various state bills could trigger the demise of the infant segment.
“With the current language [on the federal level] specifying 0.4 mg of THC per container, that means that not even full-spectrum CBD would be legal. Nine out of 10 farmers, processing facilities, distributors and retailers would go out of business,” Spang said.
“Keep in mind that these are predominantly small business owners who have invested their entire livelihoods in building this industry,” he added. “So, not only is this opportunity being ripped away from small business owners, but consumers are also losing products they clearly want access to.”
Food for Thought Leadership
This Episode is Sponsored by: Koelnmesse
Snacking in the U.S. has been on the rise for many years, but is this a global phenomenon? Sabine Schommer, Director, ISM, and Guido Hentschke, Director, ProSweets Cologne and ISM Ingredients, explore European and global snacking trends, and how the trio of ISM, ISM Ingredients, and ProSweets Cologne serve as a meeting place for the global snacking industry.
