NEW YORK CITY – Over 40,000 industry professionals descended upon New York City’s Javits Center for The National Retail Federation’s 2026 Big Show event, Jan 11-13.
Following a turbulent year for retail, with Trump administration tariffs and a volatile labor market compelling many business owners to rethink supply chain operations and look for strategic efficiencies, the U.S. is primed for a strong economic year. Michael Pearce, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, noted a 2.8% GDP growth forecast in 2026, compared to last year’s 2.2%.
“The outlook for the economy is relatively positive,” Pearce said.
Tailwinds from the implementation of AI boosting productivity and research indicating that the country has closed in on a near-term inflation peak suggests the consumer will begin to see some relief in their spending in the form of strong disinflation.
Pearce discussed the matter with Bank of America senior economist David Tinsley and NRF chief economist Mark Mathews. The trio also discussed how the K-shaped economy continues to affect the market, which demonstrates a healthy economic return for the higher-income household while lower-income shoppers continue to face pressures. Tinsley is optimistic about a narrowing gap between the two consumer subgroups, especially in the near-term.
Nevertheless, current consumer sentiment research regarding the state of the economy is at a record low, Mathews noted.
Pearce positioned this phenomenon in the context of a global movement towards perceived pessimism, citing how data capturing that has changed, and political affiliations refract this type of data. Although it’s important to consider consumer psyche, the income and sales “hard data” tend to tell a more compelling narrative.
If relief does come, and the gap between lower- and higher-income households begins to mediate, sentiments should start to come up as well.
AI Conversations Mature
Considering the new AI Stage, focused on education sessions regarding technological advancements reshaping retail and foodservice, these emerging technologies were found across the Show Floor.
Simbe, for example, recently unveiled Tally 4.0, an AI-enhanced upgrade to its flagship shelf-scanning technology. These “real-time AI” aspects allow for improved vision, expanded coverage, and upgraded edge computing that will improve service by executing the bulk of the data analysis on the device itself, rather than the cloud.
SVP of market for the robotics company, Caitlin Allen, told FI that this year’s show floor conversations have become more nuanced. In years past, prospective partners worried if robots would work in a retail environment. Now that they’ve become commonplace, with data to prove their efficacy, retailers are more comfortable with these integrations.
“The industry evolved: now we can discuss how store technology can provide wanted outcomes,” said Allen.
Worker attrition is a large problem in the retail space, and monotonous tasks are among the top-cited pain points. Tally performs some of those meticulous tasks to free up time for employees to focus on more meaningful activities.
Similarly, 7-Eleven and Hy-Vee discussed how AI boosts employment and retention amidst a difficult labor environment. In the conversation, 7-Eleven’s head of talent acquisition, Rachel Allen, noted that its transition to conversational AI chatbots to support prospective applicants saved corporate store leaders an average of 2 million hours a year.
Beyond the labor force, AI is innovating every aspect of retail operations.
Peter Schultz of Lenovo convened a panel with Carlos Landrau (Bozzutos), Joao Diogo Falcao (AiFi), and Joshua Mora (Rocketboots) to discuss how retailers can use AI – especially computer vision – to reduce shrink, improve labor efficiency, and elevate the shopper experience.
A consistent theme was that retailers face the same core problems but need different approaches depending on store size, budget, and operational maturity. Landrau, who works closely with independent grocers, emphasized that “not one solution is perfect for everybody,” which is why distributors and ecosystem partners can help smaller operators access tools that would otherwise be out of reach.
The panel closed with advice to manage expectations, avoid AI hype, and prioritize solutions that fit real workflows—using data to repurpose labor toward service, reduce preventable losses, and support better store design over time.
Future-Proof with Health-Forward Narrative
An emphasis on personal health and well-being was prevalent at the show: it was a key aspect of PepsiCo’s portfolio refresh, a key tactic for Giant Food to keep cross-shoppers in store, and even a value proposition for food tech companies serving retailers.
Upshop chief growth officer Mike Weber told FI that retailers are doubling down on their fresh and prepared foods portfolio in the wake of the surge in interest in healthy eating behaviors.
The brand supports retail efforts to reduce waste and maximize the freshness of produce and prepared foods, forecasting supply needs, and optimizing assortment with markdowns and inventory rotation.
“The biggest white space is geared around the shopper,” Weber said.
And what do these consumers want? Fresh, nutritious food.
In a separate conversation, Giant Food head of loyalty Ryan Draude, said grocer’s play for incremental growth involves offering resources for healthy lifestyle in-store as well as a comprehensive nutritious food portfolio to capture cross-shoppers at a time when loyalty is wavering.
PepsiCo, similarly, sees value in appealing to the better-for-you and health-conscious consumer. PepsiCo U.S. beverage president Michael Del Pozzo explained that consumer demand for lifestyle support is reshaping the company’s portfolio, injecting much-needed innovation into the legacy portfolio.
He cited the brand’s Gatorade reformulation as a low-sugar, artificial colorant-free product as evidence for this shift.
“The functional nature of snacking in beverages is not going anywhere,” the PepsiCo executive said.
Digital Transformation is Table Stakes
VP of commercial partnerships at Instacart, Ryan Hamburger, and Giant Eagle senior executive Justin Weinstein discussed how omnichannel had shifted from a “nice-to-have” to a core growth lever as shopper behavior and competition have intensified.
The conversation then moved into the mechanics of making omnichannel work, often through a digital transformation: reducing friction, building personalization responsibly, and using loyalty as the connective tissue across channels.
Panelists said loyalty should function as an engine for experience and a way to say “thank you,” not the centerpiece that props up a weak value proposition. Omnichannel customers tend to be “sticky,” highlighting strong loyalty linkage on third-party platforms.
On innovation, Weinstein shared a candid lesson from Scan-and-Go: shifting scanning into a phone app didn’t land as expected because shoppers don’t want to live in one app while navigating a store; that insight ultimately fueled a high-usage item-location feature.
Looking ahead, he highlighted three priorities for 2026: faster core execution (speed and accuracy in-store and online), preparing for agentic commerce, and leaning into the intersection of grocery and pharmacy as an under-tapped health opportunity – while keeping the guiding principle simple: think like the customer, minimize real friction, and stay flexible enough to meet shoppers where they are in the moment.
Not all presenters agreed that “transformation” was the name of the game, however. Dane Mathews, chief digital & technology officer at Taco Bell, emphasized that the company’s approach to change was rooted in evolution, not transformation.
Rather than attempting to overhaul the brand or force cultural shifts, Taco Bell focuses on building on what already works – its innovation mindset, strong fandom, and people-first culture.
As Mathews put it, “For Taco Bell, I think it’s really more of an evolution… not a seven-year journey of transformation.” Technology supports that evolution by making team members’ jobs easier and enabling more meaningful fan experiences, but it’s never the end goal on its own.
Mathews argued this evolutionary mindset allowed Taco Bell to adapt without losing its identity.
Image Via National Retail Federation
Food for Thought Leadership
It’s undeniable that restaurants were challenged heavily in 2025, but what does that mean for 2026? Foodservice industry veteran John Inwright discusses the prospects for a new year, what’s working for successful operators, and the headwinds and tailwinds that could define the year.
