Caution triggered by inflation produced the summer’s biggest trend: value meals. Now the trend is morphing in the wider retail sector to value deals as sellers kick off the holiday shopping season and as Black Friday approaches.
“Retailers and CPG manufacturers are seeing a shift in behavior: Consumers are more cautious, more strategic, and getting their shopping done earlier than ever before,” David Gottlieb, chief revenue officer at the technology retail company Trax, told The Food Institute.
Consumers “are focusing on must-have gifts, stocking up in bulk, and chasing deals with greater urgency.”
Target and Walmart heeded the call with bargain prices on full Thanksgiving dinners. At Target, Black Friday began Nov. 1 and will extend until Christmas Eve with deals of the day and other offerings. Walmart is holding a series of Black Friday sales, combining both online and in-store bargains.
Joanna Clark-Simpson, head of consumer research at PissedConsumer.com, said she doesn’t think Black Friday, itself, holds much meaning for consumers anymore.
“Black Friday has lost its lure, with 57.3% [of consumers] saying it isn’t relevant to their needs. 63% expect tariffs to affect prices, and 64.9% are concerned about inflation,” Clark-Simpson said, adding that many families expect Thanksgiving to feel very expensive this year.
Greg Zakowicz, e-commerce and retail adviser at Omnisend, said he expects “value-based retailers like Walmart and Costco to promote discounts on bundled meals and items, more so than on individual sides.”
“While price increases for recipe ingredients do impact the overall cost of a dish, I believe convenience is the primary driving force behind this trend,” Zakowicz said.
“Many shoppers are exhausted from busy days, negative headlines, and cost-of-living increases.”
As a result, Zakowicz feels many consumers will seek prepared foods to help them enjoy the holiday, rather than adding to their list of chores.
Data from Circana indicate 97% of Thanksgiving dinners will be home-cooked, but consumers will be stretching their budgets with food a beverage prices up more than 30% compared to 2019 without a similar boost to wages.
Turkey prices are in line with last year’s, $1.05-$1.18, and the average bird will weigh in at more than 10 pounds.
The National Retail Federation said it expects consumers to spend more than $1 trillion for the first time on holiday gifts.
“American consumers may be cautious in sentiment, yet remain fundamentally strong and continue to drive U.S. economic activity,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said.
“We remain bullish about the holiday shopping season and expect that consumers will continue to seek savings in nonessential categories to be able to spend on gifts for loved ones.”
Food for Thought Leadership
This Episode is Sponsored by: Performance Foodservice
How important is it as a food distributor to build a brand for foodservice – especially since consumers may never see or recognize it? Mike Seidel, vice president of procurement at Performance Foodservice Corporate, shares how the company views the development of its existing foodservice brands, including Roma and Contigo, and how they helped in the creation of its most recent Mediterranean concept Zebec.
