Quote of the Week: "Overall, I'm proud to say that 100 days later, our business is on the road to recovery and in several cases is already back to growing. Our teams have been focused hour to hour on regaining every transaction and it has been inspiring to see the dedication of everyone across the organization." - Jose Cil, CEO of Restaurant Brands International in a business update to shareholders
Weekend in Focus
The Food Institute spoke with JP Comte, president of Barilla Americas, about how Barilla thinks about innovation, lessons learned from COVID and the social justice movement, what food companies need to be focused on now, and what makes an effective leader. Weekender Focus
Looking Back at the Past Week
Register for the Next Featured Webinar - July 13
What to Look for in the Coming Weeks
Economic News

Health or Wealth?
  • By the end of June, the U.S. is leading the world in two statistics that seems like a paradox:
  • The U.S. is leading the world in COVID-19 infections and death rates. The U.S. has 4% of the world’s population and 25% of COVID-19 cases (CNN).
  • The U.S. is leading the world in stock market performance. Q2 2020 was Dow’s best quarter since 1987, and Nasdaq since 1999. In 3-months, S&P was up 24%, beating its UK or China counterparts by >10% (CNBC).
  • As virus cases resurged in recent weeks, the path to recover seemed uncertain. Some states are taking a step back in reopening. Other countries are restricting U.S. travelers. Both health and economic experts are emphasizing the need to control infection rates, in order for a broad-based economic recovery to take hold (CNBC, Bloomberg). 
  • Re-opening: JPMorgan analyzed data from 30 million Chase cardholders and found that higher restaurant spending in a state predicted a rise in new infections there 3 weeks later (CNBC). 
  • Fiscal stimulus update: 
  • The Senate extended Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) to Aug 8 (NYT).
  • The U.S. Treasury paid out $108.5 billion in unemployment benefits in June, most since 2005 (Bloomberg).
Economic Data
  • Markit Services PMI beat market expectations in June as states reopened. It is within 3% from pre-pandemic levels (released July 6). 
  • U.S. Job Openings remain at the lowest level in 5 years (5 million). Since February, job openings decreased from 7 million to 6 million to 5 million. Month-on-month, the number of job openings decreased in the South (-435,000), Midwest (-208,000), West (-190,000), and Northeast (-134,000). Most economists expect job openings to continue its downward trajectory throughout 2020 (released July 7).
  • U.S. Consumer Credit decreased by $68.7 billion in April, mostly attributed to revolving credit card borrowing (-$58.3 billion). Non-revolving credit including loans for education and automobiles also dropped (-$10.4 billion). Most economists expected consumer credit to bottom in June, and gradually recover to pre-pandemic levels by early 2021 (released July 8).
Restaurant Industry Data Points

Opentable reported continued negative but improving YoY % change in restaurant diner growth ( Link)
  • As of June 30: U.S. % change = -62.47%; Global % change = -62.74% 
Restaurant Brands International (QSR) provided an update on business operations ( Link )
  • Burger King – comp sales are trending flat vs. last year compared to negative mid-30s in mid-March
  • Popeyes – comp sales strong with growth in high 20s last week
  • Tim Hortons – comp sales are at negative high teens last week vs. negative mid-40s in mid-March

Food Manufacturers

General Mills (GIS) reported Q4 2020 financial results and fiscal 2021 priorities ( Link )
  • Net sales increased 21% to $5.0 billion
  • Organic net sales up 16%, driven by at-home food demand caused by COVID  
  • Q4 Segment Results:
  • North America Retail up 36% to $3.2 billion, 
  • 75% growth in U.S. Meals and Baking
  • 26% growth in U.S. Cereal
  • 10% growth in U.S. Snacks
  • 10% growth in U.S. Yogurt
  • Convenience Stores & Foodservice declined 24% to $393 million
  • Pet Segment increased 37% to $555 million
  • Management’s outlook for 2021
  • Continued consumer behavior changes tied to pandemic and recession concerns
  • Continued elevated at-home food demand
The Food Institute Report :
  • The July 6 edition will delve into how Nestlé is reshaping its portfolio, new snacking habits are emerging from the pandemic, and olive oil labels are causing consumer confusion. It will also report on the latest happenings in the potato and dairy markets. Download Here

Webinars
  • What's Happening in Produce – Latest Trends Impacting Consumers, Retail vs. Foodservice, and the Supply Chain (July 13) - Featuring Produce Marketing Association CEO Cathy Burns and 210 Analytics LLC principal Anne-Marie Roerink. Register Here
  • Growing Together – Collaboration Along the Supply Chain (July 20) - featuring Mark Allen from IFDA, Tom Bene from the NRA,and Larry Oberkfell from IFMA. Register Here

Podcast Series
  • JP Comte, president of Barilla North America, speaks with the Food Institute Podcast on how Barilla is leading change in the current environment. Listen Here
Food Institute Survey

Prior Survey Results  

Since the COVID-19 pandemic, we have all experienced some dissatisfaction with online shopping, but what choices do we have? Inmar Intelligence found that online shopping increased by as high as >30%, while satisfaction levels dropped by >10%.  

As a consumer, if you can ask online retailers ONE thing to improve your shopping experience, what would it be? 

  • 29% - Faster delivery
  • 42% - Product availability
  • 19% - Better pricing 
  • 10% - None of the above (comment) (Free shipping + free returns. User experience)  
 
New Survey ( #foodinstituteasks )  
If you were the CEO of a food company, how would you respond to social justice issues (e.g., BLM, LGBTQ+) in the wake of G. Floyd's death?  Please click here to vote .  
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